CHL Draft Lotteries Explained

Each CHL league runs its own weighted draft lottery to set the top of the order. The system exists for the same reason every pro league uses one: to give losing teams a real reward without making it perfectly rational to lose on purpose down the stretch.

How the weighting works

The team that finishes last gets the highest odds at the first overall pick, but those odds are well below 100 percent. The next worst teams get progressively lower odds. The exact percentages and the number of lottery spots vary by league. In the OHL, the bottom four non-playoff teams enter the lottery, with current odds of 40, 30, 20, and 10 percent at the first overall pick. The lottery decides the order of the first four selections; positions five onward are set by reverse standings.

The QMJHL and WHL each run their own version with similar structures: weighted balls (or a digital equivalent), a single drawing for the top pick, and the rest of the order then set by reverse standings.

What happens if a non-bottom team wins

If a team that finished fourth from the bottom wins the OHL lottery, they jump to first overall and every team between them and the original top pick slides down by one. The team that finished last can fall as far as the cap on the lottery permits, in the OHL's case as far as fourth.

Why mid-season trades change the lottery

When a non-contending team trades a 20-year-old at the deadline, they get back picks and prospects. Those picks are often first- or second-round selections two or three years out. So the lottery does not just decide who picks first this year: it sets the asset value of every future pick a contender traded away in January.