Schedule-adjusted team strength for the OHL, WHL, and QMJHL, built from three decades of results.
How to read this
Standings reward points; power ratings measure strength. Every stored game updates each team's Elo rating: beating a strong team raises it a lot, beating a weak one barely moves it, and home ice is accounted for. 1500 is always league average, ratings above roughly 1600 mark elite teams, and between seasons every team slides a third of the way back to average because junior rosters turn over quickly. Ratings are only comparable within a league - the three leagues barely play each other, so no table here ranks teams across leagues. Last 10 shows momentum, and SOS shows how hard a team's schedule has been: a high rating built against a high SOS is the real thing.
Rated through May 19. Ratings update as new results are ingested.
Every remaining game simulated 2,000 times from the current ratings. Updated as results come in.
Playoff odds return when next season's schedule is released - typically late summer. The simulation starts the moment the first schedule is published, before a single game is played.
Each simulation plays out the remaining schedule once: win chances come from the Elo ratings with home ice, and losers keep a point at the league's observed overtime rate. Ratings stay fixed within a simulation.
Rating history
Season-end ratings for the league's current top five teams. The dashed line marks league average.
Best teams of the database era
The 20 highest season-end ratings on record, across all three leagues.
Elo model: K = 10 scaled by margin of victory (capped at 2x), 50-point home-ice advantage, one-third regression to average between seasons, playoffs included. Full details in Methodology
